If you want to make a lot of money on winning NCAA Tournament pools, you might as well read this blog. Not because I’m going to tell you how, but because no one else knows, so don’t even bother looking. Stay here and enjoy reading an entertaining post before you waste your time elsewhere. Nobody, repeat NOBODY, has a method, philosophy, strategy, special vibe, all-knowing dead uncle who speaks in code, or any other method of predicting how things will shake out - and that includes the guy in your office who picked 94% of last year’s bracket correctly. Follow him this year (just make sure you ask him before the games are played) and, if form holds true, he have bubkas after the smoke clears. Joe Lunardi can tell you who’s getting in, but he has no more knowledge than your pet goldfish as to who’s going to win or lose.
Everyone who’s ever participated in filling out a bracket, or simply picking winners in March Madness, knows the key is finding the upsets. Anyone can pick the favorites all the way through, and if their entry wins, they’ll be sharing the pot with about 25% of the other contestants. It’s when you pick the winner by going “against the chalk” that separates your selections from all others. The best indicator, although I’ve not done a formal poll, just an observation from following this competition since the mid-60’s: is how the teams are matched up will be the most telling factor in tournament success. Back when I started watching, it was a heckuva lot easier. You’d start your pool by picking UCLA all the way through and crown them National Champions and then fill in the rest.Â
Now, no one’s nearly as dominating as UCLA (unless you count what Memphis does in Conference USA or Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference), so there actually can be a difference of opinion regarding which team will cut down the nets. There are so many factors involved, and the more of them there are, the more difficult a task you’ll have deciding which squads advance.
Injuries always play a vital role. If you don’t think so, ask St. Mary’s, who’d be sitting with a fairly decent seed at the moment, had Patty Mills not been lost for several games, causing him to come back (maybe a little) too early and exposing how much his team relied on him. The manner in which they lost to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Finals did the Gaels in as much as the games they lost during the season when he was out since it looked like his injury was far from healed. However, no team is going to tell the straight truth about injuries - and this one time - they can’t be blamed, because if they did, their chances of getting the seed they wanted would be non-existent.
Case in point: During the 1999-2000 season, I was Director of Basketball Operations at Fresno State. We had won the WAC Tournament and received a #9 seed in the West Region. We were paired up with #8 seed Wisconsin in Salt Lake City, the winner of the game to play the winner of the game between #1 seed Arizona against (excuse me for forgetting whichever team was seeded #16 and lost to the Wildcats).
Immediately prior to the tournament, U of A’s 7-foot center, Loren Woods, suffered a spained ankle. With him, the Wildcats were a legitimate threat to go to the Final Four and maybe even, win it all. Many of us knew Woods wasn’t going to be able to play, even when ‘Cats head coach Lute Olson maintained he would. And why not? They were nowhere near the same team without him. But the committee bought it and gave Arizona a #1 seed.
I distinctly remember speaking with the Wisconsin coaches (upon arriving in Salt Lake) and it was unanimous among us that the winner of our game would advance to the Sweet Sixteen - which is exactly what happened. Both of us, i.e. the staffs at Fresno and UW knew that without a healthy Woods, Arizona was not only extremely beatable, but he was such a game changer, we started to check who we might have to play after we left Salt Lake so we wouldn’t be scrambling after whichever one of us won. So, injuries, and their severity always will play a major role in the outcome of a game. But that’s true in every game where each team needs to be at full strength to win (after all, Woods didn’t play in ‘Zona’s first round game and they won).
All in all, the way the teams match up is what will determine a game’s outcome. Several factors are involved in the definition of “match up.”  Before I even start, let me reiterate that, taking everything into account, the team looking to pull the upset still must have enough talent to beat whomever it is they’re playing.
First, in no particular order, is the style of play. Take Pitt for example. Every game they lose, DeJuan Blair gets into foul trouble. This means if a team can get him out of the game, the chances of beating Pitt soar. Therefore, look for a team who has a big man who can score inside off of a variety of moves or has the ability to take Blair outside and put the ball on the floor, forcing him to guard away from the basket - something he’s not nearly as comfortable doing.Â
Two other things enter into the picture. This team 1) must have guards who can at least get to the three point line to initiate a pass into the post (if he’s open, but the guards are forced 35′ away from the basket - which Pitt’s guards will attempt to do - it doesn’t matter if you have Kareem in his hey day, he won’t see the ball) and 2) a coach whose philosophy is to pound it inside.
Another factor is the match ups down the road - especially for the teams with the highest seeds. As I mentioned, Arizona won its first round game without Loren Woods - and chances are, they probably would have won it without a couple of their other starters as well. But who looms next? For Arizona in ‘00, it was either us (we had the nation’s leading scorer in Courtney Alexander and a good post player in 6′10″ Melvin Ely, then a sophomore). Why, then, didn’t we win? Because Wisconsin had a shut-down defender and got the ball to their best shooter twice, late in the shot clock, when we went to our amoeba zone defense and our guy was a step slow in closing out. Note: We were one of the featured teams for the March Madness Show that year and I had so many people tell me that Jerry Tarkanian’s face dropped when they announced our opponent was Wisconsin. You don’t win as many games as he did and not know when you’ve drawn a bad match.
Location also plays a role. Is the match up in one team’s backyard where the majority of the crowd is going to make it like a home game, so should the game get really tight near the end, the local fans will do whatever in their power to get the guys a little more pumped up so they can fight through the fatigue better than their opponent, who had to travel half way across the country (or farther) to play? It wouldn’t be any coach’s choice (if he had one) to play Michigan State in Detroit in the Final Four or, I imagine, nobody’s licking their chops at the thought of playing North Carolina or Duke in Greensboro or Villanova in Philly - especially with today’s economy dictating to many, “Maybe this year, we’ll just watch it at home.”Â
Is one team primarily a zone defense team? They’d rather play a poor outside shooting team, than one who, all season, relied on the three. Does the coach like to call plays each time his team has the ball? If so, they’d rather play a man-to-man team whose philosphy is playing from “the basket out” as opposed to one who wants to presure the ball and try to take a team out of its offense. The former team may try to be physical and limit the opponent to one shot, but if the offense is well-executed, they ought to at the very least get good looks, whereas if they’re super quick and pressure so much patterns have to be broken and shots have to be created, the team’s effectiveness has been drastically cut.
Basketball is a game where one team wants to do something and the other usually wants to do the polar opposite. Talent being (relatively) equal, whoever executes better will win. However, if one team finds its game plan is one in which they’re attempting to do what their opponent hopes they will, one of the two participants is either stubborn or foolish.
When the game ends, most coaches who knew going in (like Tark vs. Wisconsin in 2000), they had a bad match won’t talk about for a couple of reasons. One is that it’s too late and the other is one of Lou Holtz’s lines:
“No one is interested how rocky the ocean is, they just want you to bring the ship in.”Â
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