Jack’s Blog

The intent of the NBA draft was to give the poorest (as in record) team a chance to make itself better.  Then the next, the next, and so on.  The worse a team did, the earlier it got to select from the draft-eligible players. But then teams got slick.  They figured, heck, we’re pretty bad this year, but with Player X (usually the best collegiate player) on our squad, we could dominate.  For years.  Why not lose a few on purpose so we can get his draft rights?  Since that logic isn’t exactly out of the Einstein School of Thought, the idea crossed the minds of the collective braintrusts of other bad teams and, well, you can see how convoluted things got when only a few games remained in the season and two or three teams were falling all over themselves to finish first.  In the Player X sweepstakes.  Or last in the NBA.  Beyond just screwing the ticket-paying public, it kinda messed with something that’s called the integrity of the game.The NBA powers-that-be came up with a lottery system which gave ping pong balls to the lottery teams, i.e. the bottom 14 of the 30 NBA teams that don’t make the playoffs.  The number of chances to win were given in reverse order of how the teams finished.  Different methods of deciding who got what have occurred throughout the years from 1985 until the present.  In 1993, real smart guys were called in to decide the “fairest” way to decide how the selection should be for the ‘94 draft.  When real smart guys and basketball guys get together, worlds collide.  Basketball guys score in ones, twos and threes (and it took a reeeeeal long time before threes were allowed.  If smart guys were in charge of scoring, there would be square roots and decimal points involved and it would be a week after the game was played before we’d know who won.  Suffice to say this lottery system gives the team with the worst record a greater chance to win it than any other team.  25%.  That is technically true.  But while the last place team has a better chance to win than any other team, it has a much less chance to win the lottery!

Without going into all the permutations and combinations (I was a math major in college but definitely not one of the “smart guys”), the team with the worst record has the greatest opportunity to “win” the lottery.  It’s just that those odds aren’t very good.  For example, last year’s worst team was the Charlotte Bobcats.  They had the best chance to win the #1 pick who, even the youngest of NBA fans knew, was going to be Kentucky’s Anthony Davis.  Whoever got Davis was getting a franchise player.  The Bobcats faithful had suffered through a dismal season but that would be old news if they could only start fresh with AD.  Then, the lottery came and they lost again.  And the reason was that, although Charlotte had a better chance of winning the lottery than any other NBA team, they still had a 75% chance of NOT winning it!

It’s easy to say something’s broken without giving a way to fix it but the lottery needs a different formula, mainly because the worst team hardly ever gets the pick.  Face it, last year the Bobcats were so bad that if they had tried to throw a game, they would have missed. The season was dreadful and then they get sand kicked in their face when they got third in the lottery.

This year, whoever has the worst record (Charlotte or Orlando) will have that same 25% chance of winning.  Except the lottery will be composed of guys who, other than foreign players, are looked down upon by NBA scouts.  Then why would they leave college?  Three reasons: 1) it’s supposedly a weak lottery field and 2) next year’s draft is supposedly better.  Combining 1) and 2) we get 3) somebody has to get selected. And going in the first round means guaranteed money.

To steal a memorable line from the late, great Jim Murray (who did not direct it toward the NBA draft), the description this year’s lottery could be:

“Never have so many done so little for so much.”

Heading into their match up with Michigan, Billy Donovan, a coach who’s noted for details or, as we’ve learned during the media time out, logistics, needed to come up with a game plan for his Florida team.  One strategy would be to pressure the Wolverines and try to force as many turnovers as they could so the Gators would have numerous opportunities to score in the open court.  That had been their usual plan throughout the season.  Another method would be to make it a half court game so that the Gators could take advantage of their superior size and pound it inside because UM usually played with four guards and only one big man.

Donovan chose the one that exploited the inside mismatch.  On paper it was an excellent philosophy - except for the fact that his inside guys weren’t as noted for their back-to-the-basket skills as much as they were for facing up and offensive rebounding.  I wonder how much time Billy himself worked with those inside guys, explaining how vital it was they scored (as much as I’d like to think players listen to an assistant - having been one for 30 years - I fully understand their antennae tune in more sharply when the head man speaks).  Not pressing the action defensively as much as they could have meant the greater majority of their point production had to come from the “bigs.”

It might have been a moot point because had his team extended its defense to attempt to create turnovers against Michigan, the Wolverines’ guards might have broken the pressure.  Then any of their three point shooters (of which they have four on the floor during most possessions) would have been knocking down shots - scoring in threes.

Basically, there are two philosophies in forming a game plan: 1) if we go to our strength(s), will that be good enough for us to win or 2) would it better to attack their weaknesses?  Naturally, there are others but for the most they’re derivatives of the two above.  Unfortunately, the Gators looked much more reactive on defense and, while they were getting the ball inside, their bigs weren’t scoring, mainly because they’re not true back-to-the-basket players.  Before you know it, they were down a couple.  Touchdowns.  It was 13-0 and it only got worse.  UF attempted to rally but every mistake was magnified, e.g. fouling a three point shooter at the end of the half which thwarted the minor momentum they’d built.

Billy Donovan has currently been to three consecutive Elite Eights.  Florida fans might be disappointed they haven’t gone farther.  Well, Gator Nation, Ben Howland is available.  Oh yeah, he committed the same crime at UCLA (although his were Final Four “failures.”  For now, the Florida faithful can take solace in the fact they seem to be stuck with Billy the Kid - the same guy they cheered when he changed his mind and reneged on the offer he’d accepted from the Orlando Magic.

When a game between relative equals starts out like the UF-UM game did yesterday, it tends to balance out after a while or, as George Raveling used to say:

“The game will return to reality.”

Sorry, readers, but no new blogs until Tuesday.  Watching younger son, Alex, play a couple games in the Bay area.  

Kobe Bryant has such passion for the game of basketball in the way he plays (30,000 points is only one aspect of his greatness), speaks (to his teammates) and acts (he’s absolutely obsessed), it’s transparent that he wants to be known as the greatest of all-time (G.O.A.T.) but that moniker belongs to one Michael Jeffery Jordan.  He’d probably be thrilled to be referred to as the best of all-time but, alas, Pat Riley, the master of copyright (remember “Three-peat”?) has taken B.O.A.T. off the market, donning his superstar, LeBron James with that acronym.

So what’s left for Kobe?  First, getting Steve Nash on the floor has got to be his Christmas wishes #1 through 10.  Short of that, he needs to change his motivational speech to Pao Gasol.  Pau has been a part of a championship team so it’s not like he doesn’t know, or can’t handle, the feeling of winning it all.  Kobe’s verbal assaults, “You’ve got to put on your big boy pants,” being the latest, might have a reverse effect on the apparently ultra-sensitive Gasol.  How to reach Gasol in time to turn the season around is something beyond anyone not close to the Lakers and if anyone were to think otherwise, they would be foolish.  It’s just that Kobe wants desperately to win, Pau’s not getting it done and Kobe blitzing Pau with sharp words hasn’t been a solution.  Suggestion?  Try something else.

Next, downplay Dwight Howard’s poor foul shooting.  BUT, get him to make up for it at the defensive end.  Dwight was right when he said their loss to Orlando wasn’t due to his poor foul shooting.  It was the fact they continued to allow the Magic to score following his misses.

Finally, Kobe and Mike D’Antoni need to stay together during the tough times, e.g. until Nash comes back.  The coach can handle hostile fans and media considering where he’s been (and I’m not talking about Phoenix).

If Kobe can do all that, keep on scoring and doing whatever else it takes to win, someone will come up with an anagram for him.

What might work for Kobe is Goethe’s line:

“Treat people as they are and they’ll remain as they are.  Treat them as they can, and should, be and they’ll become that.”

Sure, the NBA has a great rivalry in the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers but that only occurs when they meet in the NBA Finals.  OK, a regular season game between the two is exciting but everyone knows it’s nothing more than a preliminary to the real games, i.e. if they play in the finals.

If other good teams play each other, there is a modicum of interest, e.g. Miami vs. any of the top clubs but that’s due more to the players than the teams.  Well, the NBA has a true rivalry now and it doesn’t matter who’s playing for which squad.  The New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets.  For those people who aren’t from that area, New York City is composed of five boroughs: Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island.  Ask residents of each and they’ll tell you they’re from New York (as in New York City).  All except the guys from Brooklyn.  They’ll say they’re from Brooklyn.  Kenny “The Jet” Smith (a native of Queens) acknowledged as much last night on TNT’s studio show.

Another former Tarheel point guard, Raymond Felton said he felt the Knicks-Nets rivalry could become like UNC-Duke.  He said the Nets talk “a lot of blather.”  This type of comment is not heard from anybody about any other team until the playoffs - and when it’s said then, it just seems to be a rallying cry to somehow squeeze out a victory.  The Nets and the Knicks make it personal because living in NYC (Brooklyn or elsewhere) hardens guys.  Or crushes them.

There are other states in which there are multiple teams but while Houston, San Antonio and Dallas all have winning franchises, Texas will always be a football state.  Florida has a clubs in Orlando and Miami, both with very good teams for years (save last year’s debacle in DisneyWorld), but Florida is a place you visit.  Although people are now from Florida, their parents (definitely grandparents) are from somewhere else.  That’s a similar situation to California, the only state that is home for four pro basketball franchises (only because Kevin Johnson governs with the same never-say-die attitude that he played with).  The Kings, and for that matter, the Warriors, haven’t been good enough to warrant a rivalry with anyone.  Those guys are struggling for survival, hoping to snatch a playoff spot (and exit after round one).

LA has two very good teams but the overall atmosphere is too laid back.  Besides, the Lakers have been king for so long and Clips have been bad for so long that the Clippers resurgence is just now being recognized.  As a matter of fact, the Lakers had better recognize it real quick or they’ll lose the tie breaker (which may or may not be significant) since they already dropped one to the Clips earlier in the season.  Right there is the difference between NY and LA.  In New York, if one team beat the other, fans of both would know it.

In New York, things are different.  People from New York are . . . from New York.  Their parents and grandparents too.  Maybe their great- or great-great-grandparents weren’t from New York.  If not, they were from Europe.  NY fans show before the tipoff, not LA style, are loud knowledgeable, intense, sarcastic and obnoxious.  Basketball is not just a game - it’s something that’s taken much more seriously.  It’s one of the items discussed at every bar, restaurant, barber shop (not hair styling salon) and dinner tables.  Depending on the time of year, maybe the only one.

What about college ball, you ask?  That is supposed to be a religion in New York.  It is.  So is high school.  The basketball is what’s worshiped.

Someone very close to me said there would only be one other NBA rivalry fans would love to see as much as the Knicks and the Nets:

“It would be the Washington Wizards  . . . but only if the Harlem Globetrotters had a franchise.”  

Stan Van Gundy “occasionally” had his differences with the media.  Not surprising since Stan knew his craft well, certainly better than the people who covered him and his team.  Rumors abounded during his tenure as head coach of the Orlando Magic and it definitely rubbed him the wrong way.

Since the invention of the Internet, writing the game story isn’t enough.  Sportswriting has become a sport.  So many people are writing about the same team that writers are looking for the “story within the story,” i.e. the gossip.  I have to admit that my memory is not nearly as good as it was - from what I’m told, the result of reaching 60 plus - but I can’t remember the term “anonymous source” being used in sports stories - or any other stories for that matter - when I was growing up.

Possibly, I shouldn’t have been surprised when I read that Stan, on a radio show in Orlando, made the seemingly outrageous statement that Chicago Bulls’ superstar Derrick Rose might leave Chi-town.  Rose, a Chicago native and former #1 overall pick, signed a $50 million contract extension that keeps him from free agency until the summer of 2017 but Van Gundy said “the league has changed.”  While Stan said Rose is a great player and ambassador for the NBA, in today’s world guys want a chance to win it all and if Rose doesn’t get better players than his current supporting cast, he might be tempted to go to a team with that has a superior roster.

The turning point in the NBA came when the Boston Celtics obtained Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to go along with their all-star Paul Pierce - and proceeded to win the championship.  LeBron James and Chris Bosh hooking up with Dwyane Wade took a couple years but won a title this past season.  Van Gundy cited Chris Paul leaving a bad roster in New Orleans for a better one, that he wants to improve even more, with the Los Angeles Clippers.  Add to that the recent transactions of Steve Nash and Van Gundy’s former stud Dwight Howard by the LA Lakers and you can see Stan’s point.

Basically, it comes down to winning - and winning it all - which ain’t easy.  As the saying goes:

“If winning was easy, losers would do it.”

When the Lakers got Steve Nash, they got older but much wiser - and better.  Fans of the Lakeshow were hopeful the Magic would think Andrew Bynum would be better than nothing for Dwight Howard, giving LA a starting unit of Nash, Howard, Kobe, Pau and, naturally, World Peace.

Sure, the Heat are the defending champs and the Thunder are the current runners-up.  And there are 27 other teams that are going to at least try.  But Nash, with his experience and savvy, gives the Lakers a way to get easy baskets.  No more having to give it to Kobe with a short shot clock.  Defense would be somewhat of a problem but Superman, or in this case, Superman II, would be erasing at least as many mistakes as Bynum and, believe it or not, would raise the maturity level of the team’s center position.  And scoring at such a prolific pace (which Nash would mean to LA’s offense) would compensate for lesser D - although having played that many years in the league makes him crafty enough to be an adequate defender.

All that talk became moot when the Heat inked Ray Allen.  If Nash once said it would be tough putting on a Lakers’ jersey, imagine the emotions playing for Miami ought to evoke in Allen.  Maybe that’s what a perfect fit does for an aging player.  The one area, until the Finals, that the Heat had was they didn’t have a reliable three point shooter.  No need to worry now.  Talk about “spreading the floor.”

With LeBron, DWade - and even Mario Chalmers - being able to get to the basket as effectively as any trio in the NBA, Allen will just have to spot up beyond the arc.  Imagine the pressure on the opponent’s defensive coordinator when he realizes helping off the NBA’s best-ever three point shooter means stopping two only to give up three.

Coaches and players of the other 29 teams must have been sick when they heard about the move.  But NBA assistant coaches make upwards of a quarter of a mil.  The league’s coaches and players are millionaires, except for those who are multi-millionaires.  Which can only mean that even though the Heat just signed Ray Allen:

“Life isn’t fair, but it’s still good.”

So the first day of the NBA playoffs has passed and exactly how much excitement have the fans witnessed?  The answer depends on whether you’re in “NBA mode” yet.  The overall top-seed, the Chicago Bulls, were down for nearly the entire game until MVP favorite Derrick Rose decided to, once again, put the club on his back and scored or assisted the Bulls to 16 of the game’s final 17 points.  The Bulls won, 104-99.  Whew!  That was a close one.  Had they not made the final surge, . . . they would have lost their home court advantage.  The second-seeded Miami Heat also avoided such a scenario by slipping past the scrappy 76ers.Orlando wasn’t as fortunate although Dwight Howard put up monster numbers (46 & 19, 31 of the 46 points in the first half).  The Magic were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks, the team that was embarrassingly swept by the same Orlando squad last year.

Had this been the NCAA tourney, the country would be abuzz what with a near upset of the tourney’s overall #1 seed being knocked out - in the first round!  The airways would be filled with talk of Rose keeping the Bulls from making dubious history.  As far as the Heat, with the overall greatest “recruiting” class ever, their fans would continue holding their breath as the team everyone loves to hate escaped to fight another day.

The Magic wouldn’t be so lucky.  Their fans would suffer, their promising season over.  The worry over whether Dwight Howard would return or enter his name in the draft, the rumors about Stan Van Gundy losing his job and all the other water cooler topics that surface after the team is eliminated.

Instead, the way the NBA playoffs work, the mind set is whether the Pacers and Sixers can actually steal a game on the higher team’s home court (or if they can at least keep from being swept) and whether Howard’s teammates will give him some support so they can advance as usual.

Which playoff system is better?  For immediate drama, the NCAAs have it.  If you want to see the best athletes in the world, the NBA is your choice.  But which is better?

Take it from Friedrich Nietzsche:

“You have your way.  I have my way.  As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist.”

After “The Decision” was made public, it seemed a cause for alarm was issued.  Someone as knowledgeable as Jeff Van Gundy even made a statement that the Miami Heat would win 73 games, i.e. breaking the NBA record for wins in a season.  He has since recanted but following last night’s beatdown of the defending champion LA Lakers, talk of a championship for the club from South Beach is no longer as foolish as it sounded during the first fifth of the season.

The Heat was ridiculed when they began the season in Boston and the Celtics rather easily disposed of them.  The punchlines continued after three losses in a four-game stretch (the lone victory coming over the lowly New Jersey Nets) and escalated following three consecutive defeats - to bottom feeders Memphis and Indiana, and capped with a 104-95 embarrassment to in-state rival Orlando.

Then, after splitting the next pair of contests, came a twelve game winning streak.  Even with their improved play, the Heat was dismissed as just another talented team that beat up on the have-nots of the new watered-down NBA.  Just wait until Christmas Day was the familiar refrain they heard.  The Lakers - in Los Angeles, a game the defending champs had circled on their calendar ever since the “Big Three” announced their intentions to join forces, news that trumped their back-to-back championships - would be their Waterloo.

No less an authority on Laker hoops (and competitive natures) than Magic Johnson mentioned his boys had felt slighted and wanted to put the Heat in their place.  The outcome was never in doubt, but it wasn’t the Lakers, with their home crowd behind them, who jumped out early, but the guys from Miami.  And they never let up, especially at the defensive end.  Kobe Bryant’s post-game press conference saw him as terse as he’s ever been.  Everyone needs to take the Miami Heat seriously from this point on.

It looks like the operative line in the NBA is now:

“If you can’t take the Heat, get out of the playoffs.”

Theories, gut feelings and “inside information” (usually by that famous, all-knowing anonymous source) about which free agent is going to pair up with whatever other free agent or whatever current all-star(s) to form a formidable team have been running rampant for quite some time.  Well, at least since last Thursday.  Listening to the talking heads, whatever combination-of-the-day that eventually becomes reality ensures that franchise of not only next year’s Larry O’Brien trophy, but multiple “rings” (which used to be called championships back in the day when people spoke more about team accomplishments than the jewelry that was given to the individual).

A few days ago, it looked like Miami was going to have the Big 3 (Wade, James & Bosh).  Then, following Friday’s meetings, the front runner looked like the Knicks, after seeing and hearing an excited Mike D’Antoni.  Yesterday’s dynasty in the making was Chicago, who would be able to field a team, if all the pieces fell into place, of Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Joakim Noah.  No one mentioned who the fifth starter would be.  Possibly, those four would be enough for the Bulls to place an order with Josten’s.

Once everything finally shakes out and the superstars realize that, while all this attention is intoxicating, they can only play for one team, the next step will be for lesser players to cash in on contracts that, in “normal” times, no owner in his right mind (which includes nearly all of them) would dole out.  This syndrome is similar to the average guy who gets the prom queen because she was on the rebound.  In this case, “lesser” does not refer to guys like Carlos Boozer or David Lee - deserving players whose performances have earned them a big paycheck) - but more like Darco Milicic, Drew Gooden and Tyrus Thomas - guys who have already been offered contracts that are so vastly overpaying them that they ought to collect their checks wearing a mask and carrying a gun.

When this circus finally ends, the NBA will be left with the new superpowers, the  franchises with talent (not only the Lakers and the Celtics, but the Spurs, Magic, Thunder, Jazz, Mavs and probably a few others).  The newly formed mega-team (NFMT) against the Lakers will be must-see TV.  The Celtics vs. whichever other newly formed mega-team (WONFMT) will also peak viewers’ interest - at least the first couple times they face off. 

On the other hand, the teams that weren’t good before and weren’t able to improve will be fodder for the those the first two groups.  This has been the case in the past, but this year’s, for lack of a better word, collusion by the top free agents has not only widened the gap between the clubs that will be able to place a competitive squad on the court and the bottom feeders, but increased the number of those bringing up the rear as well.  Without help, e.g. rookie surprises or divine intervention, there will be some really bad, as in unwatchable, games next season.  

Should things stay as they are, Indiana or Toronto (or the Cavs if LeBron leaves - or, worse, Miami if DWade DParts) vs. NFMT or WONFMT (or for that matter, even the Lakers) will be watched in its entirety by only family members or those who placed a wager on the over-under.  Also, there will be more “bad team vs. bad team” games.  If those teams thought they had attendance problems in the past, be prepared to close about half the concession stands and lay off a great many ticket takers and ushers.

The players who are reveling in all this attention and reaping in the cash now ought to enjoy it because, unless I’m missing something, all that’s currently going on will come back to haunt the (highly paid) worker bees (that includes every NBA player) when the new CBA is drafted, as all this outlay of funds has to strengthen the owners’ case when bargaining time arrives.  A couple of superstars/per team will be highly paid, the rest of the guys - probably including starters - will be making minimum.   

In a battle of monetary attrition between owners and players, my money (however little of it I still have) is on the owners.  Although it was around a century ago that George Washington Carver said the following, it rings so true today:

“We have become 99% money mad.  The method of living at home modestly and within our income, laying a little by systematically for the proverbial rainy day which is due to come, can almost be listed among the lost arts.”Â

Each year, the NBA’s contending teams make moves they hope will pay off with a title.  This past NBA season saw a flurry of activity, with each move trumpeted as “the one” to push that team ahead of the others.

In San Antonio, the addition of Richard Jefferson was supposed to add offense and athleticism to the (aging) Big Three (Duncan, Parker & Ginobli).  The Spurs never have replaced the lockdown defense that Edison (Fresno) High’s Bruce Bowen gave them.  With Jefferson, a hard-to-guard three man, moving into the lineup, the thought was the Spurs would be a formidable threat.

The Cleveland Cavaliers picked up Shaquille O’Neal and Antawn Jamison.  People who praised the move said he’s still a beast (for brief periods) and one who could guard Dwight Howard.  In addition, the big guy wanted to show he’d gladly be regulated to sidekick so he could to bring a championship to the Cavs (mainly LeBron) like he did for DWade.  Critics of O’Neal said opponents would put him in pick & roll situations, a fact not denied by anyone in basketball.  Jamison was supposed to take some of the scoring load off of James.

The Orlando Magic, came so close last year to winning it all, but having lost Hedo Turkoglu, realized they needed serious help - which came in the form of Vince Carter.  Never have fans and pundits swayed to and fro when it came to assessing whether obtaining VC was a good move or not.  They’d win and - if Carter played well - the blockbuster move was brilliant.  A Magic loss, or a few in a row, and VC was the on the receiving end of brutal criticism.  One reason was that there was no move the Magic could have made that would have replaced what they lost in Torkoglu’s game.

Boston made a huge move when they acquired Rasheed Wallace.  Sheed gets a bad rap from fans, mainly because of his on court rantings and the number of T’s he picks up.  However, talk to any NBA insider and they’ll tell, to a man, what a great teammate and locker room guy Wallace is.  Then, late in the season, the Celtics picked up controversial and talented Nate Robinson from the dysfunctional Knicks - a move that paid off exactly as Doc Rivers had predicted.

However, the Lakers addition of Ron Artest, also a lightning rod for controversy, paid off the most.  Why?  Because LA won the championship and as the saying in professional sports goes:

“Winning isn’t everything.  It’s . . . Forget it, winning IS everything.”

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