Jack’s Blog

In the April 28, 2008 addition of Sports Illustrated - yeah, five years ago - there was an article about the NFL draft.  Not surprising, since it was the same time of year as the one held a few days ago.  The article was about the 1998 draft, the one with Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, and with the #5 pick (Curtis Enis, who retired from the league two years later) and the #92 pick (Hines Ward, who became the Super Bowl XL MVP).  A couple of the people quoted in the piece were New Orleans coach Sean Payton and former Green Bay Packers general manager, and current San Diego Chargers consultant, Ron Wolf.

Their discussion was, naturally, about the “science” of drafting football players.  Their comments, however, rang just as true as if they were discussing the NBA draft.  Payton’s comment was, “You get excited about a guy because of his tools and projecting his ability, but so much of this is looking beneath the surface.”  As the NBA playoffs continue, it’s impossible not to look at the “nobodies” who slipped through the draft cracks and the high profile picks which have yet to live up to pre-draft hype.  Everybody knows the Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan gigantic  mistake and Greg Oden before Kevin Durant humongous error.  Another interesting example would be the 2009 draft in which the Minnesota Timberwolves were in the market for a guard (several as it turned out).  They took Ricky Rubio, Spain’s version of “Pistol” Pete Maravich, with the fifth pick.  They also had the sixth pick and, because most thought Rubio would be difficult to sign, they decided to go with an additional point guard.  Their choice was Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn - whose career mostly has been in the NBA, although last season he played for the Melbourne Tigers in Australia.

What Payton meant can clearly be seen in that selection.  Not only did Minnesota select Flynn over the next pick, Stephen Curry, whom the T-Wolves are constantly being reminded went to Golden State but they also passed on #10 Brandon Jennings, #17 Jrue Holiday, #18 Ty Lawson (they actually did draft Lawson but it was only to trade him to Denver for a future first round pick) and #19 Jeff Teague.  It’s more than a stretch to say that guys picked in the first round “slipped through the cracks” but it does show how the draft is such a crap shoot for a team when its name comes to make its draft selection.

Other classics?  How about the Clippers, a year after they wisely (OK, that year, a three-year-old would have) picked Blake Griffin at #1, they felt they needed to get a small forward with the ability to get his own shot.  They chose Al-Farouq Aminu with the eighth pick.  The Jazz took Gordon Hayward next, just before the Pacers who grabbed (and has never let go of) Paul George.  Why would the Clippers pass on Paul George for Al-Farouq Aminu?

For the answer, listen to the eerie crossover similarity between football and basketball, as told by Ron Wolf:

The fascinating thing about pro football is, no matter how long you’re in it, you can’t predict how guys are going to handle the pressure, the limelight, the money.”

The NBA draft has been cut to two rounds for some time.  As one general manager told me several years ago (when his title was Director of Player Personnel), “I have the easiest job in the world.  I fly around the country, on a really nice expense account, looking at players.  I get paid extremely well, that is, more than I ever thought I’d be making - and a lot more than I was making when I was an assistant coach in college - and when it comes down to it, here’s what happens when we draft.  

“We select with our first round pick whomever the decision-maker wants.  That could be the owner, if he thinks he knows the game (and so many of these guys have made so much dough, they look at the basketball team as their hobby - and figure, “C’mon, how hard can this be?”)  If the owner has a “first lieutenant,” that is, someone he implicitly trusts, (usually the general manager), then the selection will be the GM’s.  If the head coach has the power (and fewer and fewer even want that kind of power), the first rounder will be the pick of the head coach.

“I have some say in who we pick in the second round.  And he gets cut.  So, I feel like I’m stealing money!”

Now, before the reader start judging, let me explain.  The guy who told me this story (many years ago) is one of the hardest working and brightest guys I’ve met.  I also remember asking then-New York Knicks head coach Jeff Van Gundy, who few people remember started out in college coaching, how in the world he could coach a bunch of guys he didn’t ever see.  This was at one of our self-improvement clinics, during a lunch break when we had some time together.  He explained to me, “No way would I want to be both head coach and director of player personnel or GM.  It’s way too much work.  I don’t even have enough time to watch our next opponent, much less do a thorough job of scouting college and foreign players.  It’s a totally different game from college where you’re recruiting guys you feel are good fits for your head coach.”

All that taken into consideration, it’s amazing how many mistakes - or near mistakes - teams make - with as many people as they have employed to make sure they get it right when their team’s name is on the clock.

Sure the Colts (to briefly switch to football) got it right taking Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, but there are an awful lot of professional people -and fans alike - who remember that Peyton was by no means the overwhelming choice.  And think about how far apart those two are in ability - physical, mental and emotional.

How about the greatest basketball player of all time going third in his draft?  Most people give the Rockets a pass when they decided against taking Michael Jordan and selected Hakeem Olajuwon first - one, because they desperately needed a center, two, the Dream had a Hall-of-Fame career and 3) he did lead his team to the ultimate prize.  But the grief the Portland Trailblazers have had to put up with has been merciless, when they took Sam Bowie - for the same reason.  They needed a center and had a great two guard in Clyde Drexler.

I was at Tennessee when Big Sam played at UK and everybody knew of the fragile nature of Bowie’s legs/knees/feet.  Maybe they felt they won a championship with another center who had lower extremities problems in Bill Walton, so history would repeat.  The classic line regarding the Blazers’ selection at number two was delivered by Bob Knight, who had coached MJ in the Olympic Games and had witnessed up close his skill, work ethic, and competitiveness.  As well as anyone, Bob Knight knew Michael Jordan was destined for superstardom.  So when Portland GM Stu Inman, a close friend of Knight’s, told him they really needed a center, Knight simply said to Inman, “Then draft Jordan - and play him at center.” 

Although taking really young guys is a gamble (e.g. Kwame Brown), taking a foreign player has to be more of a risk than a college guy.  Naturally, having spent 30 years in the college game, I’m biased toward the kids who play in the U.S., in front of rabid crowds and are raised on the NBA much more so than players from overseas.  It does seem like the gap is narrowing and there are some sensational players who weren’t born in this country.

However, one disappointment has been Darko Milicic.  In a previous blog, I mentioned unless a player is a surefire super, like LeBron or Shaq, the team drafting the player usually determines his chances for immediate success.  Milicic was not head coach Larry Brown’s top choice, especially with Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade all available and poor Darko spent the entire year riding the pine.  Brown could get away with it because he’s one of the top notch coaches and the Pistons won - B-I-G.

The latest foreign fiasco is Ricky Rubio.  When your team is as bad as Minnesota was last year, and you’re sitting there with three “firsts,” including number four overall, you’d better be more than absolutely sure if you pick Rubio - who, on video, looks like un ultra-talented, pass first (& defend later) big guard who could help win games - and sell tickets.

Timberwolves president David Kahn dealt directly with Rubio and his agent or rep and, I’d bet felt certain, he could work a deal out to have the “European Pistol” in a T-Wolves jersey for this year.  Now, Kahn finds out Rubio decides he wants to play two more years in Spain.  Maybe it will all work out.  Maybe in two years, he’ll be thrilling NBA crowds and Kahn will look like a genius.  I’ll wager now that, even if that is the case, he won’t be playing for the same coach.

Sometimes the decision comes down to:

“The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.”      Â