Jack’s Blog

The intent of the NBA draft was to give the poorest (as in record) team a chance to make itself better.  Then the next, the next, and so on.  The worse a team did, the earlier it got to select from the draft-eligible players. But then teams got slick.  They figured, heck, we’re pretty bad this year, but with Player X (usually the best collegiate player) on our squad, we could dominate.  For years.  Why not lose a few on purpose so we can get his draft rights?  Since that logic isn’t exactly out of the Einstein School of Thought, the idea crossed the minds of the collective braintrusts of other bad teams and, well, you can see how convoluted things got when only a few games remained in the season and two or three teams were falling all over themselves to finish first.  In the Player X sweepstakes.  Or last in the NBA.  Beyond just screwing the ticket-paying public, it kinda messed with something that’s called the integrity of the game.The NBA powers-that-be came up with a lottery system which gave ping pong balls to the lottery teams, i.e. the bottom 14 of the 30 NBA teams that don’t make the playoffs.  The number of chances to win were given in reverse order of how the teams finished.  Different methods of deciding who got what have occurred throughout the years from 1985 until the present.  In 1993, real smart guys were called in to decide the “fairest” way to decide how the selection should be for the ‘94 draft.  When real smart guys and basketball guys get together, worlds collide.  Basketball guys score in ones, twos and threes (and it took a reeeeeal long time before threes were allowed.  If smart guys were in charge of scoring, there would be square roots and decimal points involved and it would be a week after the game was played before we’d know who won.  Suffice to say this lottery system gives the team with the worst record a greater chance to win it than any other team.  25%.  That is technically true.  But while the last place team has a better chance to win than any other team, it has a much less chance to win the lottery!

Without going into all the permutations and combinations (I was a math major in college but definitely not one of the “smart guys”), the team with the worst record has the greatest opportunity to “win” the lottery.  It’s just that those odds aren’t very good.  For example, last year’s worst team was the Charlotte Bobcats.  They had the best chance to win the #1 pick who, even the youngest of NBA fans knew, was going to be Kentucky’s Anthony Davis.  Whoever got Davis was getting a franchise player.  The Bobcats faithful had suffered through a dismal season but that would be old news if they could only start fresh with AD.  Then, the lottery came and they lost again.  And the reason was that, although Charlotte had a better chance of winning the lottery than any other NBA team, they still had a 75% chance of NOT winning it!

It’s easy to say something’s broken without giving a way to fix it but the lottery needs a different formula, mainly because the worst team hardly ever gets the pick.  Face it, last year the Bobcats were so bad that if they had tried to throw a game, they would have missed. The season was dreadful and then they get sand kicked in their face when they got third in the lottery.

This year, whoever has the worst record (Charlotte or Orlando) will have that same 25% chance of winning.  Except the lottery will be composed of guys who, other than foreign players, are looked down upon by NBA scouts.  Then why would they leave college?  Three reasons: 1) it’s supposedly a weak lottery field and 2) next year’s draft is supposedly better.  Combining 1) and 2) we get 3) somebody has to get selected. And going in the first round means guaranteed money.

To steal a memorable line from the late, great Jim Murray (who did not direct it toward the NBA draft), the description this year’s lottery could be:

“Never have so many done so little for so much.”

Our Olympic basketball team should be considered no less dominant after Blake Griffin was replaced by Anthony Davis.  In fact, the team might just have gotten better because although Davis is younger, he is a much better shot blocker than the NBA’s newest version of the “Human Highlight Film.”

While it may not hurt the USA’s chances for gold, the two players involved have had their lives seriously impacted.  Davis is the lucky winner (for now, remember, he sprained his ankle and missed the “tryouts”).  While only one year out of college (which he stayed only one year), the former Wildcat star will receive an accelerated course in professionalism - from the group as a whole, not particular individuals.  The veterans - to Davis, every teammate is a veteran - will hold him accountable for his assignments, especially at the defensive end.  Mike Krzyzewski is blessed with more depth than any team his group will face (that statement could be said if all the other teams combined to make a twelve-man all-star squad) and, judging from last night’s exhibition against the Dominican Republic, Coach K plans to trap - especially in the half court.  This style is a gamble if the opponent can beat that first trap.  That’s why it’s mandatory every guy on the floor understand his rotation assignment.  In general, the players expect every person on the club to work at 100% - physically and mentally.  What a benefit for such a young, potential superstar like Davis.

Griffin, on the other hand, might not publicly say he’d like everybody’s sympathy, but he sure deserves some.  Here’s a guy coming off a sensational year.  Both the basketball and marketing worlds have become his oyster and now this.  Keep in mind, he’s the same guy who lost his entire first season to an injury.  Then, after an all-star season, he got injured in the playoffs.

Also, don’t think the positive influence of the veteran players on the team wouldn’t have helped Griffin’s career.  Lost in the posterizing dunks are the flaws in his game, namely, lack of shot blocking for a guy who can jump so high (as pointed out so expertly by Hubie Brown, a coach was known for criticizing players so they’d reach their potentials) and defense.  Hubie also noted in a broadcast or two that Blake enjoyed leaking out for the breath taking dunk when, truth be told, he should have stayed in and rebounded.  Try that a time or two and don’t think Kobe and LeBron wouldn’t bring it to his attention.  Not to mention his Clips’ teammate, Chris Paul.

So the Dream Team, or Redeem Team, or Redeem Dream Team marches on and Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin need to adopt the same theory:

“Things turn out best for people who make the best out of the way things turn out.”